How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Cienciano to win 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Cienciano host Los Chankas at home in a Peru Liga 1 clash on 30 September. Both clubs sit near the bottom of the table. Cienciano are 14th of 18 with seven points from nine games and a –6 goal difference. Just above them, Comerciantes Unidos sit two points ahead, while Club Deportivo Moquegua sit one place below on the same points. Los Chankas are 16th, also on seven points, but their goal difference is worse at –13. They are level on points with Moquegua above them and two points ahead of Asociación Deportiva Tarma below. A win for either side could lift them a place and put pressure on the clubs around them.
Cienciano’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three matches they have one win and two defeats. They began the run with a 2-0 home victory over Montevideo City Torque. That was followed by a 3-0 loss away to the same Montevideo City Torque side, and most recently a 2-1 defeat away at Asociación Deportiva Tarma. Across those three games Cienciano have scored three goals and let in five. They kept one clean sheet and failed to find the net in one match. Two of the three games featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in the Tarma game.
Los Chankas have also struggled to find consistency. Their last three results are not listed, but the overall picture shows they sit on seven points from nine games with a –13 goal difference, the same points as Cienciano but a poorer goal record. Their recent form suggests they are capable of scoring, as the chance they find the net in any game is 61 out of 100, but they are less likely to score twice, with that chance at 24 out of 100.
When the two teams meet, the numbers point to an open game with chances at both ends. Cienciano are expected to score about 2.2 goals, while Los Chankas average around 1.0. The probability that Cienciano will score at least once is high – 87 out of 100 – and they have a 60 out of 100 chance of scoring twice or more. Los Chankas have a 61 out of 100 chance of scoring at all and a 24 out of 100 chance of getting two goals. This suggests a match where both sides will look for goals, but Cienciano have the edge.
Our pick is Cienciano to win. The price offered is 1.40, which is shorter than what we feel the game deserves. We see Cienciano as the stronger side on the numbers, and we estimate they have about a 63 % chance to come out on top. The price looks good for a side that should be able to break through a Los Chankas defence that concedes fairly often. The pick would go wrong if Cienciano fail to score at all – a 13 % chance – or if Los Chankas manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice, which is unlikely but possible. In most other scenarios the home side should edge it.
Recent results
Cienciano have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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