How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Asociación Deportiva Tarma or Draw 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Asociación Deportiva Tarma host Cienciano at home in the Peru Liga 1 on 23 September 2026. Tarma sit 17th out of 18, just two points away from the team above them and five points clear of the side below. Cienciano sit 14th, seven points from the team in front and level with the club beneath them. Both clubs are fighting to stay out of the relegation zone, so a point will be valuable for either side. The table shows Tarma with a –15 goal difference while Cienciano sit at –5, indicating that Cienciano have been slightly better at both scoring and defending.
Tarma’s recent form has been poor. In their last three games they lost 3-0 to Celtic, 4-1 to Kilmarnock and 2-0 to Los Chankas. Those results give them just one goal scored and ten conceded in three matches. The run adds up to a string of heavy defeats and a very low scoring rate. Their chance of finding the net in any game is 74 out of 100, but the chance of scoring more than once drops to 39 out of 100.
Cienciano have also struggled but have been a little more competitive. Their recent fixtures include a 2-2 draw with Comerciantes Unidos, a 1-0 loss to Club Deportivo Moquegua and a 3-1 defeat by Deportivo UT Cajamarca. The most recent match, the 2-2 draw, showed that they can score goals and also keep a clean sheet for part of a game. Their chance of scoring at all is 73 out of 100 and the chance of scoring twice or more is 37 out of 100.
When the two sides meet there is almost nothing to separate them on the numbers. Both teams have similar chances to score and similar chances to score more than one goal. The expected total of goals is 2.7, suggesting a game with a few chances for each side. Given the low positions in the table and the similar goal differences, we can expect a tight contest with both teams looking to avoid another loss.
Our pick is Tarma or a draw at a price of 1.57. The price sits close to our own reading of the game and gives a short price for a wider safety net. We think a Tarma point is likely enough to make this bet work, with a 65 per cent chance of success in our view. For it to go wrong Tarma would have to lose outright and Cienciano would need to win, which seems less likely given the recent form of both clubs.
Recent results
Asociación Deportiva Tarma have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
