What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.8 from Los Chankas, so Deportivo Garcilaso come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Deportivo Garcilaso come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportivo Garcilaso to win. Deportivo Garcilaso are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.8), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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