What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from FBC Melgar and 0.8 from ADC Juan Pablo II, so FBC Melgar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FBC Melgar to win. FBC Melgar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.8), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
All three of the last meetings were drawn.
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