Arsenal v Leeds: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Arsenal to win 66%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Arsenal host Leeds at the Emirates on 10 October. Arsenal sit second in the league with 12 points from five games and a +4 goal difference. Leeds are fifth, also on +4 but with nine points. Manchester City sit one place above Arsenal, three points clear, while Brighton are just below them, two points back. Brentford sit a spot above Leeds and Liverpool are level on points just below. Both clubs are in the European places, so a win will tighten the race at the top for Arsenal and keep Leeds in the hunt for a top-four finish.

Arsenal have been in excellent form over their last eight matches. They have won seven and lost only once, that loss coming 3-0 to Brighton away. Before that they beat Ipswich Town 4-2 away, Sunderland 2-0 away, Napoli 1-0 away, Chelsea 2-1 at home and Aston Villa 1-0 away. In those eight games they have scored 15 goals and let in seven. They kept four clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Five of the games featured three or more goals, and in three of those both sides found the net.

Leeds’ recent run is more mixed. In their last eight fixtures they have three wins, three draws and two defeats. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace at home, followed by a 4-1 victory over Newcastle at home. Earlier they suffered a 6-3 loss to Chelsea away, drew 1-1 with Brighton away, drew 1-1 with Brentford at home and beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 away. Over those eight games Leeds have scored 11 and conceded 12. They kept three clean sheets but failed to score in two matches. In their last four road games they have one win, one draw and two losses.

The two sides have met five times before, with Arsenal winning every encounter. Those games have produced an average of 3.6 goals. The most recent meeting was a 4-0 win for Arsenal on 31 January. Given the history, we can expect Arsenal to dominate again, but Leeds have shown they can score, especially at home. The pattern suggests a game with at least a couple of goals, likely driven by Arsenal’s attacking edge.

We pick Arsenal to win. The numbers give Arsenal an expected 1.9 goals to Leeds’ 0.7, and we think they have about a 66 % chance of coming out on top. The price on offer is 1.44, which is shorter than our reading, so it looks attractive. For us to be wrong, Leeds would need to find a way to score twice and keep a clean sheet, something that has only happened in 16 % of their games. If that happens, the result could be a surprise, but the balance of evidence points to an Arsenal victory.