What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Aston Villa and 1.8 from Man City, so Man City come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Man City come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.8), and we make both teams to score about 58%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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