What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Chelsea and 1.3 from Tottenham, so Chelsea come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.9-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Chelsea have won two of their last five.
✓Tottenham have not won any of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
19 May 2026Chelsea 2 - 1 Tottenham
1 Nov 2025Tottenham 0 - 1 Chelsea
3 Apr 2025Chelsea 1 - 0 Tottenham
8 Dec 2024Tottenham 3 - 4 Chelsea
2 May 2024Chelsea 2 - 0 Tottenham
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