How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Man United to win 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Hull City and 2.0 from Man United, so Man United come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Man United come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Man United to win. Man United shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.0), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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