How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper, but Liverpool are the stronger side. Our goal expectations are 1.8 for Liverpool and 1.2 for Forest, which suggests an open match with chances for both teams. It won’t be a defensive slog; we can expect action at both ends of the pitch.
Looking back, the two clubs have split their recent meetings evenly – two wins each and a draw in the last five encounters. Those games have averaged 1.6 goals, so they have not been high-scoring affairs. The most recent clash was a narrow 1-0 win for Liverpool in February, showing that Forest can keep things tight but also that they are capable of finding the net.
Our pick is both teams to score. Both sides have enough attacking threat to get on the scoresheet, and the 59% chance we assign to this outcome feels right. The price of 1.77 matches our view of the game, making it an attractive option.
For the bet to fail, the match would have to end as a clean sheet for Liverpool, which seems unlikely given Forest’s ability to score and the open nature of the game. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the confidence at a moderate level.
Recent meetings
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