What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Guimaraes and 1.0 from Estrela, so Guimaraes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Estrela come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Guimaraes or Draw. This covers Guimaraes or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Guimaraes have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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