How it turned out
We projected about 1.7 goals; the game finished with 0.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Aldosivi and 1.0 from Tigre, so Tigre come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Aldosivi come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Tigre to win. Tigre shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.0), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.55, which works out at about 39 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Aldosivi to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 44%.
