How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Aldosivi and 1.2 from Union de Santa Fe, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Union de Santa Fe come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 62%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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