What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Defensa y Justicia and 1.0 from Independiente, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Independiente come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Defensa y Justicia or Draw. This covers Defensa y Justicia or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Defensa y Justicia have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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