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Football/Primera División/Independiente v Boca Juniors
Primera División · Estadio Libertadores de América

Independiente v Boca Juniors prediction

Independiente crestIndependiente5th in Clausura Group A · 18 ptsWDWLD
v
Boca Juniors crestBoca Juniors3rd in Clausura Group A · 21 ptsDWWWD

What to expect

We expect about 0.9 goals from Independiente and 1.1 from Boca Juniors, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Boca Juniors or Draw. This covers Boca Juniors or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say
✓Independiente have won two of their last five.
✓Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

11 Apr 2026Boca Juniors 1 - 1 Independiente
20 May 2025Boca Juniors 0 - 1 Independiente
14 Dec 2024Boca Juniors 0 - 0 Independiente
29 Jul 2023Independiente 0 - 2 Boca Juniors
23 Oct 2022Boca Juniors 2 - 2 Independiente
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.

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