How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Not both teams to score 50%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Lanus and 0.9 from Defensa y Justicia, so Lanus come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Defensa y Justicia come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.3 goals between the two (xG 1.4-0.9). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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