What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Lanus and 0.9 from Defensa y Justicia, so Lanus come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.5-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. The price is shorter than our own read of about 58%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
