How it turned out
We projected about 1.4 goals and the game finished with 1. We made San Lorenzo to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from San Lorenzo and 0.6 from Dep. Riestra, so San Lorenzo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.4 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
San Lorenzo come into this on two straight defeats. Dep. Riestra come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: San Lorenzo to score 1 or fewer. This is about San Lorenzo's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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