What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Velez Sarsfield and 0.7 from San Lorenzo, so Velez Sarsfield come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
San Lorenzo come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 1.7 goals between the two (xG 1.1-0.7). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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