How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al-Duhail SC (Draw No Bet) 66%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Al-Duhail SC and 1.3 from Al-Arabi, so Al-Duhail SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al-Duhail SC (Draw No Bet). Al-Duhail SC are favoured here (xG 2.1-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Al-Duhail SC defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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