What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Al-Duhail SC and 1.3 from Al-Arabi, so Al-Duhail SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Al-Arabi come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al-Duhail SC to win. Al-Duhail SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.3), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Al-Arabi to spoil this. We make it about 55% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
