What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Qatar SC and 2.5 from Al-Sadd, so Al-Sadd come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al-Sadd to win. Al-Sadd shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.6), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Qatar SC to spoil this. We make it about 70% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.