How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Farul Constanta look the stronger side in this match. Their goal average is about 1.7 compared with Botosani’s 1.0. The numbers suggest a modest game, not a goal-fest. We expect a fairly tight contest with few clear chances.
Farul have not lost in their last five league games, recording two wins and three draws, and they are coming in on two straight draws. Botosani have been less consistent, with one win, two draws and two defeats in the same span. In the last five meetings the two clubs have each won once and drawn three times, and those games have averaged 2.6 goals. The most recent encounter ended 1-1 in May.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.39 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, so it looks attractive. With an expected total of about 2.7 goals, the chance of staying under 3.5 is high, and we put the likelihood at roughly 75 out of 100.
For the pick to fail we would need both teams to find the net more often than usual, turning a cagey match into a high-scoring one. That would require a sudden burst of clear chances, which does not fit the pattern we see. We are fairly confident in our view and hold it strongly.
Recent meetings
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