What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from FCSB and 0.9 from UTA Arad, so FCSB come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FCSB come into this on two straight wins. UTA Arad come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FCSB to win. FCSB are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn UTA Arad a draw or better. At around 64% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
