How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from FCSB and 0.8 from UTA Arad, so FCSB come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.9-0.9) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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