How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Petrolul and 0.8 from Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe, so Petrolul come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 81%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Petrolul have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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