How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from UTA Arad and 0.9 from Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe, so UTA Arad come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe to score 1 or fewer. This is about Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 80%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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