How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Krasnodar (Draw No Bet) 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Dynamo Makhachkala and 1.6 from Krasnodar, so Krasnodar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Dynamo Makhachkala come into this on two straight wins. Krasnodar come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Krasnodar (Draw No Bet). Krasnodar are favoured here (xG 0.8-1.6), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Krasnodar defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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