What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Dynamo Makhachkala and 1.6 from Krasnodar, so Krasnodar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Krasnodar come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Krasnodar to win. Krasnodar shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.6), and we make them about 59% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.84, which works out at about 54 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Dynamo Makhachkala only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 59%, so it's far from a lock.
