How it turned out
We projected about 4.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Dynamo Moscow to win 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.0 goals from Dynamo Moscow and 1.0 from Rodina Moscow, so Dynamo Moscow come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Rodina Moscow come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dynamo Moscow to win. Dynamo Moscow are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.0-1.0), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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