How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 2.5 goals 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Fakel Voronezh and 1.0 from Orenburg, so Fakel Voronezh come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fakel Voronezh come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 60%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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