What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Fakel Voronezh and 1.8 from Zenit, so Zenit come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fakel Voronezh come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Zenit to win. Zenit shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.8), and we make them about 71% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Fakel Voronezh only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 71%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
