How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks like a one-sided affair. Zenit are clearly the stronger side on the numbers we have, while Fakel Voronezh have struggled to pick up any wins lately. With Zenit expected to score around 1.8 goals and Fakel only about 0.6, the match does not look tight. It should have a decent amount of action, but most of it will come from the visitors.
Recent form backs that view. Fakel have not won in their last five league games, taking two draws and three defeats, and they are coming in on two straight losses. Zenit, on the other hand, have won four of their last five, losing just once. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Zenit have won four and drawn once, with an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent clash ended 2-0 to Zenit in March 2025. This pattern suggests Zenit will dominate again and that a couple of goals are likely.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals. We think the price of 1.32 matches our view of the game. The goal expectations of 0.6 for Fakel and 1.8 for Zenit give a total of about 2.5 goals, so two goals are enough to win the bet. On our calculations this outcome should happen roughly 74% of the time.
For the bet to go wrong we would need a very low-scoring game, with Zenit failing to find the net and Fakel also staying quiet. A 0-0 or 1-0 result would break the pick. We are fairly confident in our view, but we recognise a surprise shut-out would overturn it.
Recent meetings
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