How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Fakel Voronezh to score 1 or fewer 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Krylya Sovetov host Fakel Voronezh at home in the Russian Premier League on 17 October 2026. The hosts sit 10th of 16 with 12 points after ten games and a goal difference of minus 1. One place above them sits Dynamo Makhachkala, level on points, while FK Akhmat sit just below. Fakel are down at the very bottom, 16th with only three points and a goal difference of minus 12, deep in the relegation zone. One spot above them, Rodina, are two points clear. Both teams have played only a few days before, so fatigue could be a factor, but the table tells us the stakes are very different – Krylya Sovetov are fighting for a mid-table push, Fakel are fighting to stay up.
Krylya Sovetov have not won in their last three matches. In their eight-game run they have two wins, four draws and two defeats. The most recent result was a 2-0 loss at home to Baltika. Before that they drew 1-1 with Spartak Moscow at home and 1-1 with Lokomotiv Moscow away. They beat Rodina 2-1 at home, then drew 1-1 with CSKA Moscow away and 0-0 with Dynamo Moscow away. In those eight games they have scored nine and let in eight. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to score in three matches. Two of the games featured three or more goals and five saw both sides on the scoresheet.
Fakel Voronezh have also struggled. In their last eight outings they have one win, three draws and four defeats. Their most recent game was a 2-0 victory away at FC Krasnodar. Prior to that they suffered a 5-0 loss at home to Lokomotiv Moscow, a 1-0 defeat away to Spartak Moscow, a 2-2 draw at home with Baltika, a 3-2 loss away to Krasnodar and a 2-1 loss at home to Dynamo Makhachkala. On the road in their last four games they have one win, one draw and two defeats. Across the eight matches they have scored nine goals while conceding fifteen. They have kept one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. Four of those games produced three or more goals and five saw both teams score.
The two clubs have met five times before. Krylya Sovetov have won three of those meetings, Fakel have won once and one match ended in a draw. The average number of goals in those games is 2.2. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 24 May 2025. Given the recent form of both sides, we expect a low-scoring affair with both teams finding it hard to create many chances. The numbers suggest Krylya Sovetov are more likely to score, but the game could still be tight.
Our pick is for Fakel Voronezh to score one goal or fewer. The chance of that happening is about 77 per cent. The price of 1.34 matches our view of the game. We think the pick is safe because Fakel have struggled to find the net, scoring only nine in their last eight games and failing to score in two of them. The bet would go wrong if Fakel suddenly find a second goal, perhaps by catching Krylya Sovetov on the back foot after their three-game winless run. Otherwise the odds look good for a single-goal result from Voronezh.
Recent results
Krylya Sovetov have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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