How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Rodina Moscow and 1.8 from Baltika, so Baltika come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Rodina Moscow come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.0-1.8) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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