How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Spartak Moscow to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Spartak Moscow and 0.9 from Rubin Kazan, so Spartak Moscow come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Rubin Kazan come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Spartak Moscow to win. Spartak Moscow are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Spartak Moscow have won four of the last five meetings.
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