How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 4.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.1 goals from Al Ahli and 0.7 from Abha, so Al Ahli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Ahli win & Over 1.5. Al Ahli to come out on top in what shapes up as an open, high-scoring game (xG 3.2-0.7). The result and the goals line point the same way here.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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