How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Al Khaleej and 1.6 from Al Shabab, so Al Shabab come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.0 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 67%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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