What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Al Ahli and 0.7 from Al Hazem, so Al Ahli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Ahli to win. Al Ahli are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.7), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Al Ahli have won one of their last four.
✓Al Hazem are unbeaten in their last three — one win and two draws.
