How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al Nassr to win 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Al Khaleej and 2.6 from Al Nassr, so Al Nassr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Nassr to win. Al Nassr shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.6), and we make them about 74% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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