How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Al Ahli to win 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Al Ahli and 0.7 from Al Riyadh, so Al Ahli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Ahli to win. Al Ahli are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.7), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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