What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from Al Ahli and 0.7 from Al Riyadh, so Al Ahli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Ahli win & Over 1.5. Al Ahli to win, with goals — what shapes up as an open, high-scoring game (xG 2.4-0.7). The result and the goals line point the same way here.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Football turns on small margins, and one moment can undo the soundest-looking pick. The price is shorter than our own read of about 66%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
