How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Al Ettifaq to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Abha host Al Ettifaq at home in the Saudi Pro League on 4 September 2026. Abha sit 17th of 18 with just one point from their last four games and a –6 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. Al Ettifaq sit above the drop zone, a place higher than Al Fateh and two spots clear of Al-Faisaly. Both clubs are looking for points, but the table shows Al Ettifaq as the stronger side on paper, and the numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends.
Abha have not won in their last three matches. Their most recent outing was a 3-2 defeat away at Al-Fayha. Before that they drew 1-1 with Al Khaleej at home, and three games earlier they were thrashed 4-0 by Al Ahli away. In those three games they have scored three goals and let in eight, failing to find the net in the loss to Al Ahli. Two of the three matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in two of them.
Al Ettifaq come into the clash on a better run. Their recent results have been solid, and the expectation of 2.0 goals per game shows they are finding the net regularly. Their latest performance was a convincing win that highlighted their attacking edge, confirming the trend of scoring more than they concede. This form gives them confidence heading into the visit to Abha.
When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to produce goals on both sides, matching the pattern we see in the current form. The expectation of about three goals in total this time fits that history, and the match is likely to be open, with both teams creating chances.
We back Al Ettifaq to win. The price of 2.30 is longer than our own reading of the game, but the numbers give Al Ettifaq a 56 % chance of success, which we think is enough to make the pick worthwhile. For the result to go against us, Al Ettifaq would need to be shut out while Abha manage to score at least once, a scenario that looks unlikely given Abha’s recent drought and Al Ettifaq’s better scoring record.
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