What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Abha and 2.0 from Al Ettifaq, so Al Ettifaq come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 1.1-2.0), landing about 61% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. At around 61% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
