How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Neom SC to win 46%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Neom SC and 1.1 from Al Fateh, so Neom SC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Neom SC to win. Neom SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.0), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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