What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Aberdeen and 1.4 from Kilmarnock, so Aberdeen come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 64%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Aberdeen have won one of their last five.
✓Kilmarnock have won one of their last five.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. We make it about 64%: a lean, not a lock.
