How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Čukarički to win 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Čukarički and 0.7 from Mačva Šabac, so Čukarički come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Mačva Šabac come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Čukarički to win. Čukarički are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Čukarički have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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