How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made FK Radnički 1923 or Draw 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
FK Radnički 1923 host FK Radnik Surdulica at home in the Serbia Super Liga on 23 October 2026. Both clubs sit on 17 points, but Radnički are a place higher in the table, sitting fifth while Surdulica are sixth. The gap between them is only a single spot and no points separate them, so the match could shift the order at the top of the middle of the table. A win for either side would pull them clear of the club just above or below and give a small boost in the race for European places. On the numbers we have, Radnički look the stronger side, with a higher chance of scoring and a higher chance of scoring more than once.
Radnički’s recent form has been mixed. In their last four games they have won two and lost two. The most recent result was a 2-0 defeat away to Vojvodina, followed by a 3-0 loss at home to FK Crvena Zvezda. Before those setbacks they enjoyed a 5-3 away win over OFK Beograd and a 5-0 home victory against Mladost Lučani. In those four matches they have found the net ten times but have also let in eight goals. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to score in two of the games, showing that while they can score heavily they also have defensive lapses.
Surdulica have been steadier over their last five outings, recording one win, three draws and one loss. Their latest game was a 3-0 home win over Radnički Niš, a convincing performance that gave them three points without reply. Prior to that they fell 1-0 away to FK IMT Beograd, then shared a 4-4 thriller at home with Partizan Beograd, followed by a 1-1 draw away at FK Zemun and a goalless home draw with FK Crvena Zvezda. Across these five fixtures Surdulica have scored eight goals and conceded six. They have kept two clean sheets but have also failed to find the net in two matches, indicating they can be solid but sometimes lack firepower.
When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to produce several goals, with both teams often getting on the scoresheet. Given the recent patterns – Radnički’s high-scoring wins and heavy defeats, and Surdulica’s mix of a big win and several draws – we expect another open encounter. Both teams have shown they can score three or more goals in a game, and each has been involved in matches where both sides scored. The balance of recent form suggests a game with chances for both, but Radnički’s home advantage and slightly better scoring odds give them the edge.
Our pick is FK Radnički 1923 or a draw. The price of 1.22 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so it gives us a safety net while still backing the stronger side. We think there is a 77 % chance that either Radnički will win or the match will end level. For this to go wrong, Surdulica would need to win outright, which would require them to keep a clean sheet and score at least once while stopping Radnički from finding the net – a scenario that looks less likely given the numbers. We feel the price is attractive for the risk we are taking.
Recent results
FK Radnički 1923 have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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