How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Partizan Beograd to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Partizan Beograd and 1.1 from Čukarički, so Partizan Beograd come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Partizan Beograd to win. Partizan Beograd are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.1), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Partizan Beograd have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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