How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Partizan Beograd to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Radnički Niš host Partizan Beograd at home in a Serbia Super Liga clash on 28 October 2026. Both clubs sit in the relegation zone, with Radnički Niš in 13th place on eight points from twelve games and a goal difference of minus-13. They are two points behind Mačva Šabac and two points ahead of FK Zemun. Partizan Beograd sit in 10th, also on twelve games but with eleven points and a minus-4 goal difference. They sit five points behind Novi Pazar and level on points with OFK Beograd. The two sides are fighting to climb out of the bottom half, and a win for either side could give a small but vital boost in the battle to avoid the drop.
Radnički Niš have not enjoyed a good run of form. In their last five matches they have won once and lost four times. The most recent result was a 2-0 defeat at home to Novi Pazar. Before that they fell 3-0 away to FK Radnik Surdulica, then lost 4-1 at home to Vojvodina, and suffered a 3-0 away loss to FK Crvena Zvezda. Their only win in the stretch came against OFK Beograd, a 3-1 victory at home. Across those five games they have scored four goals and let in thirteen, failing to find the net in three of them. Four of the five matches featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of those games.
Partizan Beograd’s recent form is also shaky. In their last five outings they have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats. Their latest match was a 2-0 loss at home to Čukarički. Prior to that they were beaten 1-0 away by Železničar Pančevo, then earned a 1-0 home win over Novi Pazar. They drew a dramatic 4-4 away at FK Radnik Surdulica and earlier lost 3-2 at home to Vojvodina. In this run they have scored seven goals and conceded ten, keeping only one clean sheet while failing to score in two games. Two of the five fixtures produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of those matches. The team played just four days ago, so they come into this tie on a short turnaround.
The two clubs have met before, but the exact history is not provided, so we cannot comment on past head-to-head scores. Based on the recent numbers, the game is likely to be low-scoring, with an average of three goals expected overall. Both teams have struggled to find the net regularly, yet each still has a decent chance of scoring at least once – 65 % for Radnički Niš and 84 % for Partizan. The odds suggest a tight contest, but the away side’s slightly higher expected goal tally (1.8 versus 1.2) points to a modest edge.
We back Partizan Beograd to win. The price of 1.83 matches our own view of the match, and we see the away side as the better bet. Our chance of this result coming true sits at 54 %. For the pick to go wrong, Radnički Niš would need to score twice or more, which only happens in 29 % of their games, and they would have to keep a clean sheet while limiting Partizan’s attack. If the home side manages to hold out and score, the result could swing, but the numbers favour Partizan to edge it.
Recent results
Partizan Beograd have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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