What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Frosinone and 0.9 from Venezia, so Frosinone come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.4-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 55%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. The price is shorter than our own read of about 55%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
