What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Inter and 0.8 from Genoa, so Inter come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Inter come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Inter to win. Inter are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.8), and we make them about 79% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Inter have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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