What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Ascoli and 0.8 from Empoli, so Ascoli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Empoli come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ascoli or Draw. This covers Ascoli or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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