What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Palermo and 0.8 from Carrarese, so Palermo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Palermo come into this on three straight wins. Carrarese come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Palermo to win. Palermo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.8), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Palermo have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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