How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Žilina to win 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Ružomberok and 1.9 from Žilina, so Žilina come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Žilina to win. Žilina shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.9), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Ružomberok have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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