What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Zemplín Michalovce and 1.2 from Trenčín, so Zemplín Michalovce come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Zemplín Michalovce to win. Zemplín Michalovce are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.2), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.98, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Trenčín a draw or better. We make it about 48% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
