How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Zemplín Michalovce to win 46%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Zemplín Michalovce and 1.2 from Trenčín, so Zemplín Michalovce come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Zemplín Michalovce to win. Zemplín Michalovce are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.2), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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