What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Aluminij and 1.6 from NK Bravo, so NK Bravo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: NK Bravo to win. NK Bravo shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.45, which works out at about 41 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Aluminij only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 49%.
