How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made NK Bravo to win 48%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Aluminij and 1.5 from NK Bravo, so NK Bravo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: NK Bravo to win. NK Bravo shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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