What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from NK Celje and 1.3 from Koper, so NK Celje come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: NK Celje to win. NK Celje are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.3), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Koper only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 46% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
