NK Celje v Koper: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made NK Celje to win 45%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from NK Celje and 1.3 from Koper, so NK Celje come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: NK Celje to win. NK Celje are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.3), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.